This morning’s September Revenue Forecast showed the slow, steady revenue growth that state economists had projected, for both the current biennium and for 2015-17.

State economist Mark McMullen estimated a gain of $70 million in general fund and lottery revenue for 2013-15, compared to the June forecast, and a gain of about $30 million for 2015-17.

McMullen said this forecast represents the most likely economic scenario, but that additional growth above that projected for 2013-15 could trigger a personal income tax kicker, as Oregon’s biennial revenues now stand at about 1.8 percent over the “close of session” forecast.  If revenue growth exceeds 2 percent in the biennium, approximately $300 million (or more) would be returned to taxpayers in 2016, meaning it would impact available revenues in 2015-17, McMullen said.

A full copy of the Legislative Revenue Forecast is available at:

https://olis.leg.state.or.us/liz/2013I1/Downloads/CommitteeMeetingDocument/40562

A full copy of the state Economic Forecast is at:

https://olis.leg.state.or.us/liz/2013I1/Downloads/CommitteeMeetingDocument/40554